Evgeny Goncharov vs Josh Barnett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record35-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
-Reach78,0"
266 lbsWeight248 lbs
Raty TeamTeamUWF USA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1785
If they lose-12→ 1761
If they win+12→ 1789
If they lose-12→ 1765
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evgeny GoncharovJosh Barnett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evgeny Goncharov72%
Josh Barnett 28%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Evgeny Goncharov a 72% favorite over Josh Barnett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Barnett's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1773 vs 1777), separated by just 4 points.
Evgeny Goncharov enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Evgeny Goncharov finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Josh Barnett 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.