Evgeny Goncharov vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'5"
-Reach78"
266 lbsWeight251 lbs
Raty Team· 1670 avg Elo · 14 ratedTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1784
If they lose-12→ 1760
If they win+16→ 1791
If they lose-16→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1702 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Evgeny GoncharovTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall61%
Evgeny Goncharov 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 61% favorite over Evgeny Goncharov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1772 vs 1775), separated by just 3 points.
Evgeny Goncharov enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Evgeny Goncharov finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.