Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabian Edwards vs Matt Lindland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-4-0Record22-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
79"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabian EdwardsNow 1731
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+12→ 1741
If they lose-12→ 1717

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
TBD
Strike defense
52%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.46
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
61%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Fabian EdwardsMatt Lindland
1700175020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
3 (19%)
Submission
6 (29%)
7 (44%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabian Edwards70%
Matt Lindland 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabian Edwards a 70% favorite over Matt Lindland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1729), separated by just 2 points.

Fabian Edwards finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Matt Lindland 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.