Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabian Edwards vs Paulo Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-4-0Record24-6-3
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'8"
79"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamBrazilian Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabian EdwardsNow 1731
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Paulo FilhoNow 1731
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.72
TBD
Strike accuracy
34%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.75
TBD
Strike defense
67%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.52
TBD
Takedown accuracy
8%
TBD
Takedown defense
43%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.55

Trajectory

Fabian EdwardsPaulo Filho
1700175020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
3 (19%)
Submission
9 (38%)
7 (44%)
Decision
10 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabian Edwards70%
Paulo Filho 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabian Edwards a 70% favorite over Paulo Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1731), separated by just 0 points.

Fabian Edwards finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Filho 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.