Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabiano Scherner vs Gabriel Gonzaga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-11-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
257 lbsWeight264 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamTeam Link

What's at stake

Gabriel Gonzaga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Fabiano Scherner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabiano SchernerNow 1492
If they win+21→ 1513
If they lose-11→ 1481
Gabriel GonzagaNow 1612
If they win+8→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
32%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
38%
Strike defense
57%
1.09
Takedown avg.
2.80
33%
Takedown accuracy
39%
40%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
1.10

Trajectory

Fabiano SchernerGabriel Gonzaga
1500155016001650201620172018

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
9 (53%)
6 (55%)
Submission
7 (41%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Gabriel Gonzaga70%
Fabiano Scherner 30%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Gonzaga a 70% favorite over Fabiano Scherner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Gabriel Gonzaga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1492, a 120-point edge.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fabiano Scherner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.