Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabiano Scherner vs Roggers Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-11-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
257 lbsWeight265 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamAlcateia MMA

What's at stake

Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Fabiano Scherner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabiano SchernerNow 1493
If they win+18→ 1511
If they lose-14→ 1479
Roggers SouzaNow 1530
If they win+14→ 1544
If they lose-18→ 1512

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.31
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
32%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
38%
Strike defense
TBD
1.09
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
40%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Fabiano SchernerRoggers Souza
1500155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
6 (55%)
Submission
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Roggers Souza69%
Fabiano Scherner 31%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 69% favorite over Fabiano Scherner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1493, a 37-point edge.

Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fabiano Scherner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.