Fabiano Scherner vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-11-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
257 lbsWeight246 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1509
If they lose-16→ 1477
If they win+12→ 1503
If they lose-12→ 1479
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabiano SchernerRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai66%
Fabiano Scherner 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 66% favorite over Fabiano Scherner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fabiano Scherner's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1493 vs 1491), separated by just 2 points.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fabiano Scherner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.