Fábio Maldonado vs Junior Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-18-0Record7-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
75"Reach75"
227 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1575
If they lose-12→ 1551
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fábio MaldonadoJunior Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior Tafa71%
Fábio Maldonado 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior Tafa a 71% favorite over Fábio Maldonado in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fábio Maldonado's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1563 vs 1560), separated by just 3 points.
Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Junior Tafa 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.