Combat Edge Intelligence

Fábio Maldonado vs Kyle Kingsbury

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-18-0Record11-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
75"ReachTBD
227 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Kyle Kingsbury is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Fábio Maldonado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fábio MaldonadoNow 1563
If they win+13→ 1576
If they lose-11→ 1552
Kyle KingsburyNow 1587
If they win+15→ 1602
If they lose-17→ 1570

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.97
59%
Strike accuracy
41%
4.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.81
54%
Strike defense
51%
0.44
Takedown avg.
2.64
57%
Takedown accuracy
42%
62%
Takedown defense
52%
0.55
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fábio MaldonadoKyle Kingsbury
15501600165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

19 (68%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
2 (7%)
Submission
2 (18%)
7 (25%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyle Kingsbury63%
Fábio Maldonado 37%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Kingsbury a 63% favorite over Fábio Maldonado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Kyle Kingsbury holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1587 to 1563, a 24-point edge.

Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Kingsbury 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.