Combat Edge Intelligence

Fábio Maldonado vs Mike Van Arsdale

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-18-0Record8-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
75"ReachTBD
227 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fábio MaldonadoNow 1563
If they win+12→ 1575
If they lose-12→ 1551
Mike Van ArsdaleNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.29
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
59%
Strike accuracy
41%
4.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.91
54%
Strike defense
42%
0.44
Takedown avg.
1.06
57%
Takedown accuracy
14%
62%
Takedown defense
38%
0.55
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fábio MaldonadoMike Van Arsdale
1550160016502004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

19 (68%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
2 (7%)
Submission
4 (50%)
7 (25%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Van Arsdale60%
Fábio Maldonado 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Van Arsdale a 60% favorite over Fábio Maldonado in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fábio Maldonado's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1563 vs 1560), separated by just 3 points.

Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mike Van Arsdale 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.