Fábio Maldonado vs Roger Hollett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-18-0Record13-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height5'10"
75"ReachTBD
227 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamTitans MMA
What's at stake
Roger Hollett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Fábio Maldonado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1578
If they lose-11→ 1554
If they win+15→ 1603
If they lose-17→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fábio MaldonadoRoger Hollett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fábio Maldonado64%
Roger Hollett 36%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Fábio Maldonado a 64% favorite over Roger Hollett in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roger Hollett's way (47%).
Roger Hollett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1588 to 1565, a 23-point edge.
Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roger Hollett enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Roger Hollett 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.