Fábio Maldonado vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-18-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
75"Reach 80"
227 lbsWeight234 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamStrong Style Fight Team
What's at stake
Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Fábio Maldonado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1581
If they lose-6→ 1557
If they win+8→ 1773
If they lose-24→ 1741
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic84%
Fábio Maldonado 16%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 84% favorite over Fábio Maldonado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1563, a 202-point edge.
Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Stipe Miocic carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.