Combat Edge Intelligence

Fábio Maldonado vs Vinicius Moreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-18-0Record12-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
75"ReachTBD
227 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team MaldonadoTeamFive Rounds

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fábio MaldonadoNow 1563
If they win+12→ 1575
If they lose-12→ 1551
Vinicius MoreiraNow 1566
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.29
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
59%
Strike accuracy
59%
4.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
54%
Strike defense
43%
0.44
Takedown avg.
1.97
57%
Takedown accuracy
19%
62%
Takedown defense
0%
0.55
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Fábio MaldonadoVinicius Moreira
15501600202320242025

Win method breakdown

19 (68%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
2 (7%)
Submission
10 (83%)
7 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Vinicius Moreira70%
Fábio Maldonado 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Vinicius Moreira a 70% favorite over Fábio Maldonado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1563 vs 1566), separated by just 3 points.

Fábio Maldonado enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fábio Maldonado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Vinicius Moreira 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.