Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabio Nascimento vs Marcio Alexandre Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
--ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team OyamaTeamAstra Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabio NascimentoNow 1461
If they win+24→ 1485
If they lose-24→ 1437
Marcio Alexandre JuniorNow 1467
If they win+24→ 1491
If they lose-24→ 1443

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1582 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.21
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
61%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
1.55
Takedown avg.
TBD
26%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
17%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.93
Submission avg.
TBD

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
9 (56%)
3 (27%)
Submission
5 (31%)
3 (27%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Alexandre Junior54%
Fabio Nascimento 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 54% favorite over Fabio Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1461 vs 1467), separated by just 6 points.

Fabio Nascimento enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fabio Nascimento finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.