Fabio Nascimento vs Ryan Parker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record4-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'3"
--ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTeam XCWT MMA
What's at stake
Ryan Parker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Fabio Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1487
If they lose-22→ 1439
If they win+15→ 1505
If they lose-17→ 1473
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabio NascimentoRyan Parker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Parker61%
Fabio Nascimento 39%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Parker a 61% favorite over Fabio Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Ryan Parker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1490 to 1461, a 29-point edge.
Fabio Nascimento enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Parker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fabio Nascimento finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Parker 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.