Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabricio Camoes vs Kurt Pellegrino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-9-1Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
39,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie HumaitaTeamPellegrino MMA

What's at stake

Kurt Pellegrino is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Fabricio Camoes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabricio CamoesNow 1576
If they win+13→ 1589
If they lose-11→ 1565
Kurt PellegrinoNow 1619
If they win+14→ 1633
If they lose-18→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.45
33%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.94
61%
Strike defense
63%
2.34
Takedown avg.
2.90
32%
Takedown accuracy
55%
20%
Takedown defense
69%
1.46
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Fabricio CamoesKurt Pellegrino
1600165020102011201220132014

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
7 (50%)
Submission
10 (63%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Kurt Pellegrino70%
Fabricio Camoes 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Kurt Pellegrino a 70% favorite over Fabricio Camoes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Kurt Pellegrino holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1576, a 43-point edge.

Fabricio Camoes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kurt Pellegrino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fabricio Camoes finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Pellegrino 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.