Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabricio Camoes vs Melvin Guillard

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Melvin Guillard
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Melvin Guillard

“The Young Assassin”

32-22-2WelterweightUCL

1521Average

Tale of the tape

14-9-1Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gracie HumaitaTeamGenesis Training Center

What's at stake

Fabricio Camoes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabricio CamoesNow 1576
If they win+10→ 1586
If they lose-14→ 1562
Melvin GuillardNow 1521
If they win+14→ 1535
If they lose-10→ 1511

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.96
33%
Strike accuracy
41%
1.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.85
61%
Strike defense
66%
2.34
Takedown avg.
1.30
32%
Takedown accuracy
64%
20%
Takedown defense
61%
1.46
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Fabricio CamoesMelvin Guillard
155016002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
21 (66%)
7 (50%)
Submission
2 (6%)
3 (21%)
Decision
9 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabricio Camoes56%
Melvin Guillard 44%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabricio Camoes a 56% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Fabricio Camoes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1576 to 1521, a 55-point edge.

Fabricio Camoes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.

Fabricio Camoes finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.