Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabricio Camoes vs Tommy Hayden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-9-1Record11-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie HumaitaTeamBangkok Fight Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabricio CamoesNow 1576
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564
Tommy HaydenNow 1580
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.29
Sig. strikes / min
1.48
33%
Strike accuracy
27%
1.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
61%
Strike defense
55%
2.34
Takedown avg.
3.42
32%
Takedown accuracy
33%
20%
Takedown defense
67%
1.46
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fabricio CamoesTommy Hayden
1550160020132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
7 (50%)
Submission
6 (60%)
3 (21%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Tommy Hayden72%
Fabricio Camoes 28%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Hayden a 72% favorite over Fabricio Camoes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1580), separated by just 4 points.

Fabricio Camoes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fabricio Camoes finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Hayden 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.