Fabrício Werdum vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-1Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
45,0"Reach42,0"
246 lbsWeight264 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamTeam Link
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1808
If they lose-18→ 1784
If they win+18→ 1630
If they lose-6→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fabrício WerdumGabriel Gonzaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum66%
Gabriel Gonzaga 34%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 66% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1612, a 190-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.
Fabrício Werdum and Gabriel Gonzaga share 2 common opponents: Travis Browne and Stipe Miocic.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.