Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabrício Werdum vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-10-1Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
45,0"Reach77"
246 lbsWeight250 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabrício WerdumNow 1803
If they win+7→ 1810
If they lose-17→ 1786
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+17→ 1659
If they lose-7→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.59
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
52%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
56%
Strike defense
56%
1.75
Takedown avg.
0.30
32%
Takedown accuracy
50%
32%
Takedown defense
82%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Fabrício WerdumJunior dos Santos
1650170017501800201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (25%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
12 (50%)
Submission
1 (4%)
6 (25%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabrício Werdum78%
Junior dos Santos 22%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 78% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1642, a 161-point edge.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Fabrício Werdum and Junior dos Santos share 1 common opponent: Stipe Miocic.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

Winko/tko · 2016
Stipe Miocic
Lossko/tko · 2017