Fabrício Werdum vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-1Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
45,0"Reach77"
246 lbsWeight250 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1809
If they lose-17→ 1785
If they win+17→ 1660
If they lose-7→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Fabrício WerdumJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum62%
Junior dos Santos 38%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 62% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1643, a 159-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Fabrício Werdum and Junior dos Santos share 1 common opponent: Stipe Miocic.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.