Fabrício Werdum vs Marcin Tybura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-1Record27-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
45,0"Reach78"
246 lbsWeight247 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamAnkos MMA
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Marcin Tybura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1812
If they lose-15→ 1788
If they win+15→ 1736
If they lose-9→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1720 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabrício WerdumMarcin Tybura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum60%
Marcin Tybura 40%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 60% favorite over Marcin Tybura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1721, a 82-point edge.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Tybura 63%.
Fabrício Werdum and Marcin Tybura share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.