Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabrício Werdum vs Mike Russow

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-10-1Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
45,0"ReachTBD
246 lbsWeight256 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mike Russow carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fabrício WerdumNow 1803
If they win+7→ 1810
If they lose-17→ 1786
Mike RussowNow 1631
If they win+23→ 1654
If they lose-9→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.59
Sig. strikes / min
1.55
52%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
56%
Strike defense
60%
1.75
Takedown avg.
4.66
32%
Takedown accuracy
44%
32%
Takedown defense
0%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Fabrício WerdumMike Russow
16501700175018002011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

6 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
12 (50%)
Submission
8 (53%)
6 (25%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Fabrício Werdum83%
Mike Russow 17%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 83% favorite over Mike Russow in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1631, a 172-point edge.

Mike Russow enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mike Russow 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.