Fabrício Werdum vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-1Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
45,0"Reach72,0"
246 lbsWeight249 lbs
Werdum Combat TeamTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1809
If they lose-18→ 1785
If they win+18→ 1644
If they lose-6→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabrício WerdumRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum83%
Roy Nelson 17%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 83% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1626, a 177-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Fabrício Werdum finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Fabrício Werdum and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.