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Combat Edge Intelligence

Fabrizio Escarrega vs Justin Wilcox

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Justin Wilcox
us

Justin Wilcox

“The Silverback”

14-7-0LightweightBFC

1632Solid

Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record14-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1675 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fabrizio EscarregaNow 1633
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Justin WilcoxNow 1632
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Fabrizio EscarregaJustin Wilcox
16001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
1 (11%)
Submission
2 (14%)
1 (11%)
Decision
10 (71%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Wilcox52%
Fabrizio Escarrega 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Wilcox a 52% favorite over Fabrizio Escarrega in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fabrizio Escarrega's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1632), separated by just 1 points.

Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Justin Wilcox 29%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.