Fabrizio Escarrega vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record26-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fabrizio EscarregaStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrizio Escarrega84%
Stevie Ray 16%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrizio Escarrega a 84% favorite over Stevie Ray in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1633), separated by just 0 points.
Stevie Ray enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Fabrizio Escarrega finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.