Combat Edge Intelligence

Falaniko Vitale vs Matt Lindland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-11-0Record22-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
808 Top TeamTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Matt Lindland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Falaniko Vitale carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Falaniko VitaleNow 1660
If they win+14→ 1674
If they lose-10→ 1650
Matt LindlandNow 1729
If they win+10→ 1739
If they lose-14→ 1715

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
20%
Strike accuracy
52%
9.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.27
48%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
3.46
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
86%
Takedown defense
61%
0
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Falaniko VitaleMatt Lindland
16501700175020102011201220132014

Win method breakdown

14 (47%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
12 (40%)
Submission
6 (29%)
4 (13%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Lindland61%
Falaniko Vitale 39%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Lindland a 61% favorite over Falaniko Vitale in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Matt Lindland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1660, a 69-point edge.

Falaniko Vitale finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Matt Lindland 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.