Combat Edge Intelligence

Felice Herrig vs Justine Kish

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-10-0Record9-6-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team CurranTeamBlack House

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Felice HerrigNow 1556
If they win+17→ 1573
If they lose-15→ 1541
Justine KishNow 1569
If they win+15→ 1584
If they lose-17→ 1552

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
4.51
38%
Strike accuracy
48%
5.19
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.59
48%
Strike defense
58%
1.08
Takedown avg.
0.87
29%
Takedown accuracy
33%
75%
Takedown defense
50%
0.81
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Felice HerrigJustine Kish
15501600202120222023

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
4 (29%)
Submission
2 (22%)
9 (64%)
Decision
7 (78%)

Combat Edge model read

Justine Kish60%
Felice Herrig 40%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Justine Kish a 60% favorite over Felice Herrig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1556 vs 1569), separated by just 13 points.

Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Felice Herrig finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Justine Kish 22%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.