Felipe Colares vs Luke Sanders
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Luke Sanders54%
Felipe Colares 46%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Sanders a 54% favorite over Felipe Colares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Luke Sanders holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1618, a 45-point edge.
Luke Sanders enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Felipe Colares finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Luke Sanders 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record13-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1597 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamNashville MMA
What's at stake
Luke Sanders is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Felipe Colares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1636
If they lose-14→ 1604
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-18→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Felipe ColaresLuke Sanders