Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe dos Santos vs Fredy Serrano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record4-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'2"
70"Reach65,0"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamMMA Colombia

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Felipe dos SantosNow 1582
If they win+24→ 1606
If they lose-24→ 1558
Fredy SerranoNow 1581
If they win+24→ 1605
If they lose-24→ 1557

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1584 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
1.58
37%
Strike accuracy
27%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.89
42%
Strike defense
62%
0
Takedown avg.
2.84
0%
Takedown accuracy
25%
14%
Takedown defense
85%
0.33
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Felipe dos SantosFredy Serrano
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
3 (38%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (38%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Felipe dos Santos63%
Fredy Serrano 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Felipe dos Santos a 63% favorite over Fredy Serrano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1581), separated by just 1 points.

Felipe dos Santos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Felipe dos Santos finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Fredy Serrano 67%.

Felipe dos Santos carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.