Combat Edge Intelligence

Felipe dos Santos vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record10-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
70"Reach67"
126 lbsWeight126 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

Lone’er Kavanagh is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Felipe dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Felipe dos SantosNow 1582
If they win+31→ 1613
If they lose-17→ 1565
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1689
If they win+11→ 1700
If they lose-21→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1584 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
37%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
42%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
1.12
0%
Takedown accuracy
45%
14%
Takedown defense
94%
0.33
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Felipe dos SantosLone’er Kavanagh
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
3 (38%)
Submission
1 (10%)
3 (38%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Lone’er Kavanagh77%
Felipe dos Santos 23%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Lone’er Kavanagh a 77% favorite over Felipe dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Lone’er Kavanagh holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1582, a 107-point edge.

Felipe dos Santos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Felipe dos Santos finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Felipe dos Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.