Felipe dos Santos vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
70"Reach67"
126 lbsWeight126 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
Lone’er Kavanagh is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Felipe dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+30→ 1612
If they lose-18→ 1564
If they win+12→ 1683
If they lose-20→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe dos SantosLone’er Kavanagh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lone’er Kavanagh67%
Felipe dos Santos 33%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Lone’er Kavanagh a 67% favorite over Felipe dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Lone’er Kavanagh holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1582, a 89-point edge.
Felipe dos Santos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Felipe dos Santos finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.
Felipe dos Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.