Felipe Froes vs Mizuto Hirota
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-12-1Record18-11-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
-Reach67,5"
158 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamCave
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1632
If they lose-12→ 1608
If they win+12→ 1630
If they lose-12→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe FroesMizuto Hirota
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Froes84%
Mizuto Hirota 16%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Froes a 84% favorite over Mizuto Hirota in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1618), separated by just 2 points.
Mizuto Hirota enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Felipe Froes finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Mizuto Hirota 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.