Felipe Rosa vs Gustavo Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record5-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
-Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
TeamAlcateia MMA· 1555 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Felipe Rosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Gustavo Rocha carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1627
If they lose-27→ 1579
If they win+27→ 1592
If they lose-21→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Felipe RosaGustavo Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Felipe Rosa and Gustavo Rocha within a point of even.
Felipe Rosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1565, a 41-point edge.
Felipe Rosa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Felipe Rosa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gustavo Rocha 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.