Felipe Rosa vs Gustavo Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record6-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
-Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
TeamAlcateia MMA· 1554 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Gustavo Rocha is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Felipe Rosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1601
If they lose-22→ 1553
If they win+22→ 1626
If they lose-26→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Felipe RosaGustavo Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo Rocha56%
Felipe Rosa 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo Rocha a 56% favorite over Felipe Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Gustavo Rocha holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1604 to 1575, a 29-point edge.
Felipe Rosa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gustavo Rocha 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.