Felipe Rosa vs Marcelo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record9-2-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1632
If they lose-24→ 1584
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felipe RosaMarcelo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Rosa63%
Marcelo Guimaraes 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Rosa a 63% favorite over Marcelo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1606), separated by just 2 points.
Felipe Rosa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Marcelo Guimaraes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Felipe Rosa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marcelo Guimaraes 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.