Fernando Padilla vs Shane Collins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record8-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'10"
76"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
If they win+24→ 1697
If they lose-24→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaShane Collins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Collins61%
Fernando Padilla 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Collins a 61% favorite over Fernando Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fernando Padilla's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1673), separated by just 0 points.
Shane Collins enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Shane Collins 63%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.