Combat Edge Intelligence

Fernie Garcia vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight136 lbs
Fortis MMATeamFreelance· 1618 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Fernie Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fernie GarciaNow 1592
If they win+21→ 1613
If they lose-11→ 1581
Rinya NakamuraNow 1711
If they win+11→ 1722
If they lose-21→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.27
34%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.72
49%
Strike defense
64%
0.28
Takedown avg.
2.58
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.55
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Fernie GarciaRinya Nakamura
1600165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (10%)
6 (60%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura72%
Fernie Garcia 28%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 72% favorite over Fernie Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1592, a 119-point edge.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Fernie Garcia finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.