Combat Edge Intelligence

Forrest Griffin vs Maurício Rua

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamUniversidade da Luta

What's at stake

Maurício Rua is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Forrest Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Forrest GriffinNow 1658
If they win+18→ 1676
If they lose-14→ 1644
Maurício RuaNow 1691
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
3.57
36%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.79
61%
Strike defense
54%
1.05
Takedown avg.
2.01
48%
Takedown accuracy
49%
57%
Takedown defense
49%
0.73
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Forrest GriffinMaurício Rua
16501700175020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
21 (78%)
6 (32%)
Submission
1 (4%)
9 (47%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Maurício Rua58%
Forrest Griffin 42%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Maurício Rua a 58% favorite over Forrest Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Maurício Rua holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1658, a 33-point edge.

Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Forrest Griffin finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.