Combat Edge Intelligence

Forrest Griffin vs Rashad Evans

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record20-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height5'11"
77"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Rashad Evans is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Forrest Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Forrest GriffinNow 1658
If they win+17→ 1675
If they lose-15→ 1643
Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.38
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
36%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
61%
Strike defense
63%
1.05
Takedown avg.
2.98
48%
Takedown accuracy
45%
57%
Takedown defense
74%
0.73
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Forrest GriffinRashad Evans
16502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
6 (32%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (47%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Rashad Evans51%
Forrest Griffin 49%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 51% favorite over Forrest Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Rashad Evans holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1658, a 16-point edge.

Forrest Griffin finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.

Forrest Griffin carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.