Forrest Griffin vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-7-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
77"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Forrest Griffin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Stephan Bonnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1672
If they lose-18→ 1640
If they win+18→ 1631
If they lose-14→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Forrest GriffinStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Forrest Griffin68%
Stephan Bonnar 32%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Forrest Griffin a 68% favorite over Stephan Bonnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Forrest Griffin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1658 to 1613, a 45-point edge.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Forrest Griffin finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar share 2 common opponents: Tito Ortiz and Anderson Silva.
Stephan Bonnar carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.