Fran Breen vs Jared Papazian
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record20-14-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight135 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamTeam Hayastan
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fran BreenJared Papazian
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fran Breen71%
Jared Papazian 29%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Fran Breen a 71% favorite over Jared Papazian in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jared Papazian's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1551), separated by just 5 points.
Jared Papazian enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Fran Breen finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Jared Papazian 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.