Fran Breen vs Nate Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record8-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1571
If they lose-23→ 1523
If they win+15→ 1573
If they lose-17→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fran BreenNate Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fran Breen59%
Nate Smith 41%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Fran Breen a 59% favorite over Nate Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nate Smith's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1558), separated by just 12 points.
Nate Smith enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Fran Breen finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Nate Smith 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.