Fran Breen vs Rafael Dias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record20-9-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamSD Training System
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522
If they win+12→ 1558
If they lose-12→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fran BreenRafael Dias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fran Breen61%
Rafael Dias 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Fran Breen a 61% favorite over Rafael Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1546), separated by just 0 points.
Fran Breen finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Dias 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.