Combat Edge Intelligence

Fran Breen vs Tateki Matsuda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Fran Breen

Fran Breen

“Fran”

5-2-0FlyweightCWFC

1546Average

Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record15-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'7"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamTeam Sityodtong

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fran BreenNow 1546
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522
Tateki MatsudaNow 1544
If they win+12→ 1556
If they lose-12→ 1532

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1496 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.20
TBD
Strike accuracy
35%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.43
TBD
Strike defense
69%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
17%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fran BreenTateki Matsuda
150015502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
5 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (7%)
3 (60%)
Decision
9 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Fran Breen73%
Tateki Matsuda 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fran Breen a 73% favorite over Tateki Matsuda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1544), separated by just 2 points.

Tateki Matsuda enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Fran Breen finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Tateki Matsuda 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.