Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Carmont vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-12-0Record27-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Francis Carmont carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francis CarmontNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-8→ 1636
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+8→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1750

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
42%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
59%
Strike defense
64%
1.79
Takedown avg.
0.27
37%
Takedown accuracy
43%
73%
Takedown defense
79%
0.60
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Francis CarmontLorenz Larkin
1650170017502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
11 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (32%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin78%
Francis Carmont 22%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 78% favorite over Francis Carmont in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1644, a 122-point edge.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francis Carmont finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.