Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Carmont vs Ronaldo Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-12-0Record26-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tristar GymTeamFusion X-Cel Performance

What's at stake

Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Francis Carmont carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francis CarmontNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-8→ 1636
Ronaldo SouzaNow 1749
If they win+8→ 1757
If they lose-16→ 1733

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.22
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
42%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
59%
Strike defense
62%
1.79
Takedown avg.
2.57
37%
Takedown accuracy
39%
73%
Takedown defense
58%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Francis CarmontRonaldo Souza
16501700175018002015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
11 (44%)
Submission
14 (54%)
8 (32%)
Decision
4 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Ronaldo Souza61%
Francis Carmont 39%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Ronaldo Souza a 61% favorite over Francis Carmont in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1644, a 105-point edge.

Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Francis Carmont finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.