Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Carmont vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-12-0Record28-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReach78,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tristar GymTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Francis Carmont carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francis CarmontNow 1644
If they win+15→ 1659
If they lose-9→ 1635
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.22
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
42%
Strike accuracy
41%
1.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
59%
Strike defense
53%
1.79
Takedown avg.
2.10
37%
Takedown accuracy
27%
73%
Takedown defense
31%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Francis CarmontThales Leites
1650170017502015201620172018

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
11 (44%)
Submission
15 (54%)
8 (32%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Thales Leites75%
Francis Carmont 25%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 75% favorite over Francis Carmont in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1644, a 100-point edge.

Francis Carmont finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.