Francis Carmont vs Tom Lawlor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record11-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
TBDReach74,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tristar GymTeamThe Jungle MMA
What's at stake
Francis Carmont is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tom Lawlor carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1654
If they lose-14→ 1630
If they win+19→ 1602
If they lose-13→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis CarmontTom Lawlor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Carmont51%
Tom Lawlor 49%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Carmont a 51% favorite over Tom Lawlor in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Francis Carmont holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1583, a 61-point edge.
Francis Carmont finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.