Francis Carmont vs Zach Reese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-12-0Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'3"
TBDReach77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tristar GymTeamW4R Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis CarmontZach Reese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zach Reese70%
Francis Carmont 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zach Reese a 70% favorite over Francis Carmont in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francis Carmont's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1644), separated by just 0 points.
Zach Reese enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Francis Carmont finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Zach Reese 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.