Francis Marshall vs Kurt Holobaugh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamGracie United
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis MarshallKurt Holobaugh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall71%
Kurt Holobaugh 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 71% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kurt Holobaugh's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1654 vs 1657), separated by just 3 points.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Holobaugh 81%.
Francis Marshall carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.