Combat Edge Intelligence

Francis Marshall vs Rasul Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record17-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach-
155 lbsWeight171 lbs
Pellegrino Mixed Martial ArtsTeamAchilles

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francis MarshallNow 1654
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638
Rasul MagomedovNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.39
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
33%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
2.86
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.61
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Francis MarshallRasul Magomedov
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
4 (24%)
5 (50%)
Submission
2 (12%)
4 (40%)
Decision
11 (65%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Francis Marshall and Rasul Magomedov within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1654 vs 1656), separated by just 2 points.

Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francis Marshall finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rasul Magomedov 35%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.